The reset, the midpoint, and the pinnacle
A must-hit slot meter begins at a reset and must award its jackpot before a known cap. The average hit point is the midpoint. After the machine's hold, however, playing from reset is negative expected value. The advantage player waits. The passage of play moves the state closer to the cap while the downside becomes increasingly bounded.
Growth investing has no literal jackpot cap. But the discipline transfers. Describe today's reset state, the plausible pinnacle, and the profitable midpoint between them. If the investment needs the most beautiful version of the future to work, the price does not contain a sufficient edge. The research target is the state where a less-than-perfect future can still create value.
We are not trying to predict the exact moment the future arrives. We are trying to recognize when the relationship between price, probability, and payoff becomes asymmetric.
A future worth owning
Must Hit studies systems that could expand individual freedom and material abundance: automation that removes unwanted labor, robotics that multiply human capacity, energy systems that make useful work cheaper, and aircraft that turn personal flight from spectacle into infrastructure.
The vision chooses the direction. Evidence decides whether each causal link survives. Capital acts only after a separate decision process.